2021 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

41·16

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.063
  • 43.7%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.161
  • +0.015EPA / rush-0.094
  • 11.2%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -2.26CPOE+5.14
  • 39.1%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.38
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CINQ1 15:001271Opp touchdown7–0
CINQ1 8:431070Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 4:101074Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 14:45834Turnover on downs20–7
CLEQ2 10:18160Touchdown21–7
CINQ2 10:10526Turnover21–7
CLEQ2 7:31526Field goal24–7
CINQ2 4:101048Field goal24–10
CLEQ2 0:0200End of half24–10
CLEQ3 15:00628Punt24–10
CINQ3 11:39520Punt24–10
CLEQ3 8:14270Touchdown31–10
CINQ3 8:0036Turnover31–10
CLEQ3 6:3437Field goal34–10
CINQ3 5:1430Punt34–10
CLEQ3 3:193-4Punt34–10
CINQ3 1:07745Touchdown34–16
CLEQ4 13:51847Missed field goal34–16
CINQ4 9:0456Turnover on downs34–16
CLEQ4 6:59740Touchdown41–16
CINQ4 4:27411Punt41–16
CLEQ4 3:19313Punt41–16
CINQ4 1:03211End of half41–16

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield14/2121820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb141379.82
D'Ernest Johnson8162.00
Jarvis Landry100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones23861
Nick Chubb22260
Harrison Bryant22260
Demetric Felton11220
David Njoku13181
Anthony Schwartz11150
Austin Hooper22140
Jarvis Landry35110

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow28/4028202
Brandon Allen1/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon13644.92
Samaje Perine5204.00
Joe Burrow210.50
Brandon Allen100.00
Ja'Marr Chase200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins68780
Ja'Marr Chase613490
Joe Mixon55460
Drew Sample33360
C.J. Uzomah45240
Samaje Perine23170
Mike Thomas11160
Tyler Boyd12110
Chris Evans11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.28