Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.063
- 43.7%Success rate44.6%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.161
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.094
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- -2.26CPOE+5.14
- 39.1%Third-down rate40.1%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.81Points / drive2.38
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/21 | 218 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 14 | 137 | 9.8 | 2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 3 | 86 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/40 | 282 | 0 | 2 |
| Brandon Allen | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 13 | 49 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28