Closing spread
BUF -13
Total
47
Model margin
-0.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.072
- 47.4%Success rate42.1%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.084
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.95CPOE-7.25
- 47.6%Third-down rate37.8%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.52Points / drive1.70
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/28 | 366 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Davis Webb | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 13 | 162 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 3 | 105 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 24/44 | 251 | 0 | 4 |
| Joe Flacco | 3/3 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 16 | 39 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.18
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.11