2021 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

10·41

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.063
  • 40.2%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.094
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -2.66CPOE+5.14
  • 39.0%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.38
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
CINQ1 15:001171Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 9:29314Turnover0–7
CINQ1 7:563-8Field goal0–10
PITQ1 6:01953Field goal3–10
CINQ1 2:17675Touchdown3–17
PITQ2 14:15728Punt3–17
CINQ2 10:181478Touchdown3–24
PITQ2 2:4339Punt3–24
CINQ2 1:48745Turnover3–30
PITQ2 0:3710Opp touchdown3–31
PITQ2 0:302-9End of half3–31
PITQ3 15:00617Punt3–31
CINQ3 12:1158Punt3–31
PITQ3 8:27527Turnover3–31
CINQ3 6:23712Field goal3–34
PITQ3 2:3532Punt3–34
CINQ3 1:07565Touchdown3–41
PITQ4 13:10743Punt3–41
CINQ4 10:36723Punt3–41
PITQ4 6:11969Touchdown10–41
CINQ4 2:5931Punt10–41
PITQ4 1:47748End of half10–41

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/4126312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris8232.90
Kalen Ballage3217.00
Benny Snell252.50
Anthony McFarland221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson914950
Chase Claypool38820
Pat Freiermuth44401
Najee Harris35140
Anthony McFarland11110
Zach Gentry12100
Kalen Ballage1260
James Washington1230
Anthony Miller1120

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow20/2419011
Brandon Allen0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon281655.92
Chris Evans5234.60
Joe Burrow188.01
Samaje Perine331.00
Brandon Allen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins681141
Ja'Marr Chase33390
Tyler Boyd22130
Samaje Perine11120
C.J. Uzomah3390
Chris Evans1150
Mike Thomas0100
Stanley Morgan0100
Joe Mixon44-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.06