Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.063
- 40.2%Success rate44.6%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.094
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- -2.66CPOE+5.14
- 39.0%Third-down rate40.1%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.65Points / drive2.38
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/41 | 263 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 9 | 14 | 95 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| James Washington | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/24 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 28 | 165 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Chris Evans | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06