Closing spread
KC -8.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.140
- 44.7%Success rate51.1%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.34CPOE+2.81
- 38.3%Third-down rate52.1%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.89Points / drive2.66
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 22/40 | 257 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 23 | 102 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/29 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Marcus Kemp | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.81