2021 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

9·22

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

KC -8.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.140
  • 44.7%Success rate51.1%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.024
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.34CPOE+2.81
  • 38.3%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.66
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:591382Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 6:5631Punt0–7
KCQ1 5:52842Field goal0–10
DENQ1 2:221071Field goal3–10
KCQ2 13:34416Punt3–10
DENQ2 12:162083Turnover on downs3–10
KCQ2 1:0932Punt3–10
DENQ2 0:04234End of half3–10
KCQ3 15:00843Turnover3–10
DENQ3 11:0437Punt3–10
KCQ3 8:58760Field goal3–13
DENQ3 5:35631Turnover3–13
KCQ3 2:02412Punt3–13
KCQ4 15:0038Field goal3–16
DENQ4 13:26943Opp touchdown3–22
DENQ4 9:421285Touchdown9–22
KCQ4 5:1254Punt9–22
DENQ4 2:43848Turnover on downs9–22
KCQ4 1:1000End of half9–22

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater22/4025712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams231024.40
Mike Boone4358.80
Teddy Bridgewater4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy46770
Javonte Williams69761
Noah Fant44330
Albert Okwuegbunam34210
Mike Boone11190
Courtland Sutton26150
Tim Patrick1590
Kendall Hinton1170

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes15/2918401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire14543.90
Darrel Williams5204.00
Patrick Mahomes4123.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrel Williams33600
Clyde Edwards-Helaire33280
Travis Kelce38270
Tyreek Hill25220
Demarcus Robinson22210
Byron Pringle14140
Mecole Hardman11120
Marcus Kemp0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.81