Closing spread
SF -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.042
- 45.5%Success rate43.8%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.024EPA / rush+0.026
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.73CPOE+4.08
- 40.6%Third-down rate37.3%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 2.30Points / drive2.12
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/30 | 299 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 22 | 66 | 3.0 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 9 | 12 | 181 | 2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 30/37 | 231 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Homer | 3 | 80 | 26.7 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.61