2021 · Week 13 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

23·30

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.042
  • 45.5%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.024EPA / rush+0.026
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.73CPOE+4.08
  • 40.6%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.12
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00477Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 13:1130Punt0–7
SEAQ1 11:232-5Turnover6–7
SFQ1 10:34124Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 10:2737Punt7–7
SFQ1 8:4310Turnover7–7
SEAQ1 8:3340Missed field goal7–7
SFQ1 5:42954Touchdown14–7
SEAQ1 1:3231Punt14–7
SFQ2 14:45946Field goal17–7
SEAQ2 9:431065Touchdown17–14
SFQ2 5:35780Touchdown23–14
SEAQ2 1:48942Touchdown23–21
SFQ2 0:1200End of half23–21
SFQ3 15:0000Turnover23–21
SEAQ3 14:53621Turnover23–21
SFQ3 11:543-3Safety23–23
SEAQ3 10:28631Punt23–23
SFQ3 6:55426Turnover23–23
SEAQ3 4:37528Touchdown23–30
SFQ3 2:2839Punt23–30
SEAQ3 0:1955Punt23–30
SFQ4 12:43415Punt23–30
SEAQ4 10:561356Turnover23–30
SFQ4 4:0313115Turnover on downs23–30
SEAQ4 0:1800End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo20/3029922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell22663.01
George Kittle155.00
Jimmy Garoppolo200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle9121812
Brandon Aiyuk36550
Elijah Mitchell33180
Trent Sherfield25160
Jauan Jennings1180

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson30/3723121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Homer38026.71
Rashaad Penny10353.50
Adrian Peterson11161.51
Russell Wilson3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett78681
DK Metcalf58600
Dee Eskridge33351
Rashaad Penny11270
Freddie Swain33180
Travis Homer45100
Gerald Everett4670
Will Dissly2270
Penny Hart11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.61