2021 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

30·17

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

TB -11

Total

51

Model margin

-4.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.143EPA / play-0.076
  • 49.9%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback-0.028
  • +0.024EPA / rush-0.162
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.50CPOE+0.85
  • 48.0%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
  • 2.51Points / drive1.58
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
TBQ1 15:001375Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 9:53675Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 6:40771Touchdown13–7
ATLQ1 4:23413Punt13–7
TBQ1 2:0532Punt13–7
ATLQ1 0:391579Field goal13–10
TBQ2 8:391085Touchdown20–10
ATLQ2 4:541129Punt20–10
TBQ2 0:4421Opp touchdown20–17
TBQ2 0:2200End of half20–17
ATLQ3 15:00435Turnover20–17
TBQ3 13:0036Punt20–17
ATLQ3 12:211136Punt20–17
TBQ3 6:121487Touchdown27–17
ATLQ3 0:293-3Punt27–17
TBQ4 13:25521Punt27–17
ATLQ4 11:28851Punt27–17
TBQ4 7:251278Field goal30–17
ATLQ4 1:49965End of half30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady38/5136841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette13443.40
Chris Godwin Jr.199.00
Giovani Bernard133.00
Ronald Jones122.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.15171430
Mike Evans710990
Rob Gronkowski48582
Leonard Fournette78481
Giovani Bernard1270
Breshad Perriman1350
Tyler Johnson1150
Cameron Brate1131
Ronald Jones1100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/4129700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson13786.00
Mike Davis4328.01
Qadree Ollison273.50
Matt Ryan320.70
Olamide Zaccheaus122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Gage11121300
Kyle Pitts47480
Olamide Zaccheaus35440
Mike Davis44370
Cordarrelle Patterson35180
Tajae Sharpe35100
Qadree Ollison1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -113.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.77