2021 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -11
Total
51
Model margin
-4.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play-0.076
- 49.9%Success rate41.2%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.028
- +0.024EPA / rush-0.162
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.50CPOE+0.85
- 48.0%Third-down rate38.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 2.51Points / drive1.58
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 38/51 | 368 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 15 | 17 | 143 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 7 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 8 | 58 | 2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 8 | 48 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/41 | 297 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Qadree Ollison | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 11 | 12 | 130 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.77