2021 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

29·21

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.132
  • 41.2%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback-0.158
  • -0.162EPA / rush-0.089
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.85CPOE-7.50
  • 38.5%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.43
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:38965Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 8:191175Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 3:0337Punt7–7
ATLQ1 1:22622Punt7–7
CARQ2 12:271166Opp touchdown14–7
CARQ2 8:3535Punt14–7
ATLQ2 7:04838Field goal17–7
CARQ2 3:1234Turnover17–7
ATLQ2 1:55413End of half17–7
CARQ3 15:00860Touchdown17–14
ATLQ3 11:21945Field goal20–14
CARQ3 6:28529Turnover20–14
ATLQ3 4:401159Touchdown26–14
CARQ4 14:17928Turnover on downs26–14
ATLQ4 9:55518Field goal29–14
CARQ4 6:10719Turnover on downs29–14
ATLQ4 4:5411Turnover29–14
CARQ4 4:49651Touchdown29–21
ATLQ4 3:11740End of half29–21

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/2819010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson16583.61
Mike Davis11444.00
Qadree Ollison5234.60
Matt Ryan430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Gage46640
Kyle Pitts56610
Mike Davis56420
Lee Smith11120
Tajae Sharpe1270
Hayden Hurst1131
Cordarrelle Patterson2510

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2317801
PJ Walker6/127511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton10474.71
Chuba Hubbard10333.31
Ameer Abdullah4164.00
PJ Walker2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen712841
DJ Moore610840
Brandon Zylstra45450
Tommy Tremble22230
Ameer Abdullah24170
Ian Thomas0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.69
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.94