Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.132
- 41.2%Success rate41.2%
- -0.028EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.162EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.85CPOE-7.50
- 38.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.58Points / drive1.43
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/28 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/23 | 178 | 0 | 1 |
| PJ Walker | 6/12 | 75 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 7 | 12 | 84 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 6 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.69
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.94