Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.063
- 46.3%Success rate44.6%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.31CPOE+5.14
- 36.5%Third-down rate40.1%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.93Points / drive2.38
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 28/40 | 304 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 10 | 125 | 1 |
| James Proche | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 37/46 | 525 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 12 | 13 | 194 | 2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 10 | 125 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 85 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 6 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.70