2021 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Josh Johnson

21·41

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.063
  • 46.3%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +0.31CPOE+5.14
  • 36.5%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.38
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:00857Field goal0–3
BALQ1 11:061275Touchdown7–3
CINQ1 5:561174Touchdown7–10
BALQ1 0:2739Punt7–10
CINQ2 14:11271Touchdown7–17
BALQ2 13:1834Punt7–17
CINQ2 11:03758Touchdown7–24
BALQ2 7:031490Touchdown14–24
CINQ2 1:38973Touchdown14–31
BALQ2 0:21322End of half14–31
BALQ3 15:00823Punt14–31
CINQ3 11:0920103Field goal14–34
BALQ3 0:40560Touchdown21–34
CINQ4 14:55878Touchdown21–41
BALQ4 10:05519Turnover on downs21–41
CINQ4 8:0262Missed field goal21–41
BALQ4 5:15632Turnover21–41
CINQ4 3:24460End of half21–41

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson28/4030421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman6172.81
Latavius Murray5122.40
Josh Johnson5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews8101251
James Proche78760
Marquise Brown59440
Rashod Bateman45261
Tylan Wallace12180
Latavius Murray11120
Devonta Freeman2230

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow37/4652540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon18653.61
Joe Burrow2115.50
Chris Evans111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins12131942
Ja'Marr Chase7101250
Tyler Boyd35851
Joe Mixon66701
C.J. Uzomah57360
Drew Sample2290
Samaje Perine2260
Chris Evans0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.70