2021 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -11.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-5.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play-0.132
- 49.9%Success rate41.2%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.158
- +0.024EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- +1.50CPOE-7.50
- 48.0%Third-down rate36.1%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.51Points / drive1.43
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/30 | 232 | 1 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 7 | 70 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Cyril Grayson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 15 | 101 | 0 |
| Cyril Grayson | 3 | 3 | 81 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 15/32 | 190 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7/13 | 61 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shi Smith | 3 | 5 | 86 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.79