2021 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

32·6

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -11.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-5.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.143EPA / play-0.132
  • 49.9%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback-0.158
  • +0.024EPA / rush-0.089
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +1.50CPOE-7.50
  • 48.0%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 2.51Points / drive1.43
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:21859Field goal0–3
TBQ1 7:17580Touchdown7–3
CARQ1 4:13627Turnover7–3
TBQ1 1:411043Field goal10–3
CARQ2 10:54564Field goal10–6
TBQ2 7:20945Field goal13–6
CARQ2 2:4038Punt13–6
TBQ2 1:41469Touchdown19–6
CARQ2 1:1942Punt19–6
TBQ2 0:351-1End of half19–6
CARQ3 15:0065Punt19–6
TBQ3 12:301041Field goal22–6
CARQ3 8:344-10Punt22–6
TBQ3 6:25757Touchdown29–6
CARQ3 2:081351Turnover on downs29–6
TBQ4 11:523-1Punt29–6
CARQ4 10:154-7Turnover on downs29–6
TBQ4 9:49415Field goal32–6
CARQ4 7:593-8Punt32–6
TBQ4 6:47727Punt32–6
CARQ4 2:101482End of half32–6

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/3023210
Blaine Gabbert0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn77010.01
Ronald Jones20653.31
Cyril Grayson11414.00
Tom Brady11111.00
Le'Veon Bell2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown10151010
Cyril Grayson33810
Rob Gronkowski12230
Ronald Jones23160
Cameron Brate24111
Scott Miller0100
Ke'Shawn Vaughn0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold15/3219000
Cam Newton7/136101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton5428.40
Sam Darnold11111.00
Chuba Hubbard691.50
Reggie Bonnafon144.00
Ameer Abdullah210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shi Smith35860
Robbie Chosen510580
DJ Moore512550
Tommy Tremble22220
Reggie Bonnafon22120
Ameer Abdullah3680
Terrace Marshall Jr.1160
Ian Thomas1140
Alex Erickson0100
Giovanni Ricci0100
Stephen Sullivan0100
Chuba Hubbard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.9%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.79