2021 · Week 18 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
TB -11
Total
43
Model margin
+9.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.143
- 41.2%Success rate49.9%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.089EPA / rush+0.024
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -7.50CPOE+1.50
- 36.1%Third-down rate48.0%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.43Points / drive2.51
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 29/42 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 7 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 9 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 7 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| C.J. Saunders | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/37 | 326 | 3 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Miller | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 1 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 10 | 137 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 7 | 89 | 2 |
| Breshad Perriman | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 5 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaelon Darden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.6%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.20