2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

17·41

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TB -11

Total

43

Model margin

+9.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.132EPA / play+0.143
  • 41.2%Success rate49.9%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.089EPA / rush+0.024
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -7.50CPOE+1.50
  • 36.1%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.43Points / drive2.51
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
CARQ1 15:001470Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 7:2233Punt7–0
CARQ1 5:481036Turnover on downs7–0
TBQ2 15:00940Field goal7–3
CARQ2 11:091268Turnover on downs7–3
TBQ2 4:5735Punt7–3
CARQ2 3:32415Punt7–3
TBQ2 1:48892Touchdown7–10
CARQ2 0:1500End of half7–10
TBQ3 15:00777Touchdown7–17
CARQ3 11:5735Punt7–17
TBQ3 10:5536Punt7–17
CARQ3 9:26852Field goal10–17
TBQ3 4:441162Touchdown10–24
CARQ4 14:56856Touchdown17–24
TBQ4 10:34675Touchdown17–31
CARQ4 7:3438Turnover17–31
TBQ4 6:2935Field goal17–34
CARQ4 5:0449Turnover on downs17–40
TBQ4 4:17133Touchdown17–41
CARQ4 4:0710Turnover17–41
TBQ4 3:51512Missed field goal17–41
CARQ4 1:514-1Turnover on downs17–41
TBQ4 0:3700End of half17–41

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold29/4221921
Brandon Zylstra0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard9485.30
Ameer Abdullah7263.70
Sam Darnold8192.40
DJ Moore11313.00
Tommy Tremble144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore710870
Ameer Abdullah911560
Robbie Chosen79501
C.J. Saunders22110
Chuba Hubbard2281
Tommy Tremble2570
Brandon Zylstra0200
Keith Kirkwood0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/3732630
Blaine Gabbert0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Scott Miller24321.51
Ke'Shawn Vaughn10292.91
Le'Veon Bell3144.70
Kenjon Barner400.00
Blaine Gabbert1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski7101370
Mike Evans67892
Breshad Perriman56440
Tyler Johnson57220
Cameron Brate23120
Ke'Shawn Vaughn22120
Scott Miller1190
Le'Veon Bell1111
Jaelon Darden0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +115.2%6.9%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.5%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.6%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.20