2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

28·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

KC -11.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-3.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.140EPA / play+0.021
  • 51.1%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.216EPA / dropback+0.100
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +2.81CPOE+2.34
  • 52.1%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.66Points / drive1.89
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:571786Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 6:081252Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 0:2662Punt7–7
DENQ2 12:56880Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 7:491454Field goal10–14
DENQ2 2:18616Punt10–14
KCQ2 0:23430End of half10–14
KCQ3 15:00975Touchdown17–14
DENQ3 10:43575Touchdown17–21
KCQ3 9:02832Punt17–21
DENQ3 5:3836Punt17–21
KCQ3 4:171040Field goal20–21
DENQ4 14:441067Opp touchdown28–21
DENQ4 7:42762Field goal28–24
KCQ4 4:37675End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/4427020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes9546.00
Derrick Gore7304.30
Jerick McKinnon5244.80
Darrel Williams7172.40
Mecole Hardman11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mecole Hardman8111030
Byron Pringle58560
Travis Kelce45341
Darrel Williams34300
Jerick McKinnon33261
Demarcus Robinson36190
Tyreek Hill1320
Josh Gordon0100
Derrick Gore0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock12/2416200
Courtland Sutton1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon121109.21
Javonte Williams12463.80
Drew Lock4358.82

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick610950
Jerry Jeudy25300
Javonte Williams22180
Noah Fant12160
Courtland Sutton13130
Melvin Gordon1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.52.8%3.1%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.0%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.95
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.79