Closing spread
KC -11.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-3.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.140EPA / play+0.021
- 51.1%Success rate44.7%
- +0.216EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.81CPOE+2.34
- 52.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.66Points / drive1.89
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/44 | 270 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman | 8 | 11 | 103 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 12/24 | 162 | 0 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 110 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 6 | 10 | 95 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.0%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.79