Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bears
- OutKyle MonangaiRBThumb· DNP
- QuestionableD'Marco JacksonLBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableMalik MuhammadCBToe· Limited
Seahawks
- OutCharles CrossTAnkle· DNP
- OutRashid ShaheedWRKnee· DNP
- OutVelus Jones Jr.RBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulUchenna NwosuLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony BradfordGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon PiliDTBack· DNP
- QuestionableDrew LockQBElbow· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick O'ConnellLBToe· DNP
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.042
- 47.0%Success rate42.4%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.225
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.30CPOE+1.94
- 44.6%Third-down rate38.2%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
- 2.27Points / drive1.93
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.28