Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
-1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapSeahawks
- +0.361EPA / play+0.029
- 53.3%Success rate38.8%
- +0.551EPA / dropback+0.196
- +0.143EPA / rush-0.195
- 12.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- +16.58CPOE+2.36
- 71.4%Third-down rate18.2%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 4.19Points / drive1.29
- 1.3%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.54
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.56