Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
- +0.139EPA / play+0.029
- 48.6%Success rate38.8%
- +0.270EPA / dropback+0.196
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.195
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.2%
- +4.61CPOE+2.36
- 46.2%Third-down rate18.2%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.35Points / drive1.29
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.23
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.09