Closing spread
SEA -11.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.042
- 44.1%Success rate42.4%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.225
- 5.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.66CPOE+1.94
- 39.0%Third-down rate38.2%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
- 1.94Points / drive1.93
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.70