Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapCowboys
- +0.153EPA / play+0.142
- 52.5%Success rate48.8%
- +0.265EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.001EPA / rush+0.017
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- +4.63CPOE+1.17
- 51.0%Third-down rate48.7%
- 88.6%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.81Points / drive2.97
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.87