Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
-10.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapCowboys
- +0.190EPA / play+0.271
- 56.9%Success rate48.3%
- +0.227EPA / dropback+0.425
- +0.142EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.7%Explosive rate0.0%
- +0.77CPOE+7.73
- 58.3%Third-down rate72.7%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.98Points / drive2.98
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-12.98
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-10.76