Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Eaglesedge mapCowboys
- -0.086EPA / play+0.142
- 37.3%Success rate48.8%
- -0.055EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.144EPA / rush+0.017
- 4.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- -3.23CPOE+1.17
- 36.6%Third-down rate48.7%
- 77.8%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 1.84Points / drive2.97
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26