Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+2.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Seahawksedge map49ers
- -0.042EPA / play+0.153
- 42.4%Success rate52.5%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.001
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- +1.94CPOE+4.63
- 38.2%Third-down rate51.0%
- 58.1%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
- 1.93Points / drive2.81
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.28