Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapSeahawks
- +0.027EPA / play-0.042
- 42.9%Success rate42.4%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.225
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.00CPOE+1.94
- 44.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
- 2.15Points / drive1.93
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.94