Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapSeahawks
- +0.363EPA / play+0.029
- 59.1%Success rate38.8%
- +0.667EPA / dropback+0.196
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.195
- 6.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- +13.38CPOE+2.36
- 90.0%Third-down rate18.2%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 3.97Points / drive1.29
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.92