Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-5.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapRams
- +0.271EPA / play-0.226
- 48.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.425EPA / dropback-0.270
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.171
- 0.0%Explosive rate6.7%
- +7.73CPOE-4.74
- 72.7%Third-down rate22.2%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.98Points / drive0.69
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. LA are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-4.97