Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+3.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapRams
- +0.142EPA / play+0.059
- 48.8%Success rate49.0%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.117
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.042
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.17CPOE+1.33
- 48.7%Third-down rate46.2%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 2.97Points / drive2.15
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. LA are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+3.05