Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Seahawksedge mapEagles
- +0.029EPA / play+0.027
- 38.8%Success rate34.0%
- +0.196EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.167
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.36CPOE+0.87
- 18.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.29Points / drive1.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.49