Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Seahawksedge mapEagles
- -0.042EPA / play-0.086
- 42.4%Success rate37.3%
- +0.103EPA / dropback-0.055
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.3%Explosive rate4.6%
- +1.94CPOE-3.23
- 38.2%Third-down rate36.6%
- 58.1%Red-zone TD rate77.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.84
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.31