Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge mapSeahawks
- +0.059EPA / play-0.042
- 49.0%Success rate42.4%
- +0.117EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.225
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.33CPOE+1.94
- 46.2%Third-down rate38.2%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
- 2.15Points / drive1.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.47