Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+14.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge mapSeahawks
- -0.226EPA / play+0.029
- 43.3%Success rate38.8%
- -0.270EPA / dropback+0.196
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.195
- 6.7%Explosive rate10.2%
- -4.74CPOE+2.36
- 22.2%Third-down rate18.2%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 0.69Points / drive1.29
- 3.3%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+12.16
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+14.46