Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapCowboys
- +0.363EPA / play+0.271
- 59.1%Success rate48.3%
- +0.667EPA / dropback+0.425
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.100
- 6.1%Explosive rate0.0%
- +13.38CPOE+7.73
- 90.0%Third-down rate72.7%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.97Points / drive2.98
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.68
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.38