Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapCowboys
- +0.027EPA / play+0.142
- 42.9%Success rate48.8%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.102EPA / rush+0.017
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- -2.00CPOE+1.17
- 44.9%Third-down rate48.7%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.15Points / drive2.97
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.62