Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-7.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Seahawksedge mapPanthers
- +0.029EPA / play+0.130
- 38.8%Success rate47.1%
- +0.196EPA / dropback+0.242
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.2%Explosive rate11.8%
- +2.36CPOE+4.17
- 18.2%Third-down rate44.4%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.29Points / drive2.90
- 0.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-9.89
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-7.83