Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Seahawksedge mapPanthers
- -0.042EPA / play+0.019
- 42.4%Success rate41.9%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.084
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.94CPOE-0.58
- 38.2%Third-down rate39.3%
- 58.1%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.93Points / drive2.15
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+0.64