2026 · Week 18 · Division
Scheduled
Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapCommanders
- +0.271EPA / play+0.073
- 48.3%Success rate43.5%
- +0.425EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.046
- 0.0%Explosive rate4.3%
- +7.73CPOE-3.44
- 72.7%Third-down rate33.3%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.98Points / drive1.99
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94