2026 · Week 18 · Division
Scheduled
Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapCommanders
- +0.142EPA / play-0.008
- 48.8%Success rate41.3%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.069
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.148
- 6.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- +1.17CPOE+3.27
- 48.7%Third-down rate31.3%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.97Points / drive1.86
- 1.3%Turnover rate0.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 39–16 since 1999
DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.41