2000 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

13·16

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 73°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

40

Model margin

-0.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBills
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.059
  • 39.2%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 42.4%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.36
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7TEN @ BUF10–34BUF
2022 · W2TEN @ BUF7–41BUF
2021 · W6BUF @ TEN31–34TEN
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2019 · W5BUF @ TEN14–7BUF
2018 · W5TEN @ BUF12–13BUF
2015 · W5BUF @ TEN14–13BUF
2012 · W7TEN @ BUF35–34TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:27516Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 11:1631Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:4635Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:154-1Punt0–0
TENQ1 5:5939Punt0–0
BUFQ1 4:111166Touchdown0–7
TENQ2 12:29620Punt0–7
BUFQ2 9:0331Punt0–7
TENQ2 7:30523Field goal3–7
BUFQ2 4:17943Missed field goal3–7
TENQ2 0:57650Field goal6–7
BUFQ2 0:11112End of half6–7
TENQ3 15:0037Punt6–7
BUFQ3 13:20421Punt6–7
TENQ3 11:0130Punt6–7
BUFQ3 9:58613Punt6–7
TENQ3 7:473-5Punt6–7
BUFQ3 6:23417Field goal6–10
TENQ3 4:003-6Punt6–10
BUFQ3 2:43627Field goal6–13
TENQ4 14:19631Turnover on downs6–13
BUFQ4 11:003-5Punt6–13
TENQ4 9:3846Touchdown13–13
BUFQ4 8:4439Punt13–13
TENQ4 7:073-1Punt13–13
BUFQ4 4:57621Punt13–13
TENQ4 2:3738Punt13–13
BUFQ4 1:01541Field goal13–16
TENQ4 0:3129Missed field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair17/3115201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George17372.21
Steve McNair2157.50
Rodney Thomas111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Wycheck48510
Eddie George68440
Carl Pickens23230
Chris Sanders12180
Michael Roan33120
Yancey Thigpen1140
Kevin Dyson0200
Erron Kinney0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rob Johnson9/1810710
Alex Van Pelt4/86700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Johnson66010.00
Antowain Smith17422.50
Shawn Bryson10161.60
Sammy Morris2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds25460
Peerless Price49421
Jeremy McDaniel34400
Shawn Bryson12230
Sammy Morris11140
Jay Riemersma2390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.13