Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
40
Model margin
-0.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.059
- 39.2%Success rate39.9%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- 42.4%Third-down rate38.0%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.28Points / drive1.36
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/31 | 152 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 17 | 37 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 9/18 | 107 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 4/8 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 2 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 4 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.13