Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
43
Model margin
+8.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
5.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.021
- 44.6%Success rate47.1%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.110
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- 40.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.88Points / drive1.81
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 34 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:04 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 7:40 | 6 | 36 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 2:56 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:25 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 12:11 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:48 | 4 | 25 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| BUF | Q2 9:12 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:37 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| BUF | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| BUF | Q3 10:50 | 3 | 25 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:32 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 20–17 |
| BUF | Q3 7:38 | 4 | -6 | Punt | 20–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:17 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| BUF | Q3 4:24 | 6 | 29 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:58 | 6 | 43 | Missed field goal | 20–24 |
| BUF | Q4 13:04 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 20–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:55 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 23–24 |
| BUF | Q4 9:25 | 6 | 52 | Missed field goal | 23–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:22 | 5 | 42 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| BUF | Q4 4:47 | 15 | 71 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:26 | 4 | 45 | End of half | 37–31 |
| NYJ | OT | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 37–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 24/30 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Anthony Becht | 4 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 26/39 | 271 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 31 | 149 | 4.8 | 3 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 13 | 112 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 7 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 6 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
5.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.5%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+7.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.72