2002 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.036
- 42.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.019EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.038
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- 35.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 41.7%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.22Points / drive1.94
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 17/31 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 10 | 131 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 6 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 13/25 | 150 | 0 | 3 |
| Mike Vick | 4/12 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.60