2002 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

20·6

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.036
  • 42.2%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.038
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 35.3%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 41.7%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.94
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00920Missed field goal0–0
TBQ1 10:532-1Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 10:19521Field goal0–3
TBQ1 7:0500Punt0–3
ATLQ1 7:05310Punt0–3
TBQ1 4:55437Punt0–3
ATLQ1 1:52513Punt0–3
TBQ2 14:421356Field goal3–3
ATLQ2 8:03517Punt3–3
TBQ2 5:04851Turnover3–3
ATLQ2 1:4439End of half3–3
TBQ3 15:0033Punt3–3
ATLQ3 14:023-5Punt3–3
TBQ3 12:43725Punt3–3
ATLQ3 9:14543Field goal3–6
TBQ3 6:18385Touchdown10–6
ATLQ3 4:3239Punt10–6
TBQ3 3:22818Punt10–6
ATLQ4 14:37614Turnover10–6
TBQ4 11:25949Field goal13–6
ATLQ4 6:3110Opp touchdown20–6
TBQ4 6:1400Opp touchdown20–6
ATLQ4 6:14841Turnover20–6
TBQ4 3:0034Punt20–6
ATLQ4 1:541051Turnover20–6

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson17/3126111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman19623.30
Keenan McCardell133.00
Brad Johnson122.00
Aaron Stecker1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson6101311
Keenan McCardell610830
Joe Jurevicius13190
Jameel Cook11130
Michael Pittman2590
Rickey Dudley0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Johnson13/2515003
Mike Vick4/123700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Duckett11524.70
Warrick Dunn9141.60
Doug Johnson133.00
Mike Vick111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Finneran59610
T.J. Duckett33340
Shawn Jefferson24320
Brian Kozlowski23170
Willie Jackson16160
Warrick Dunn27130
Alge Crumpler1290
Reggie Kelly1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.60