Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.054
- 47.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.055
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- 42.2%Third-down rate40.1%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.81Points / drive1.88
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 21/33 | 181 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 6 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 7 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 15/24 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 120 | 5.7 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 7 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.06