2002 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.043
- 42.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- 42.9%Third-down rate35.3%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
- 1.94Points / drive1.22
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.206
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:29 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:05 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 8:15 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 4:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 2:23 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 11:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 9:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 8:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 8:13 | 2 | 10 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 7:42 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| TB | Q2 2:02 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| ATL | Q2 0:34 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 3–21 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| ATL | Q3 9:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–24 |
| TB | Q3 8:41 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| ATL | Q3 5:20 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–27 |
| TB | Q3 4:04 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–27 |
| ATL | Q3 1:29 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| TB | Q4 11:40 | 5 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–34 |
| ATL | Q4 8:31 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 10–34 |
| TB | Q4 6:04 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 10–34 |
| ATL | Q4 0:59 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 10–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/25 | 125 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Gaylor | 1 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 23/31 | 276 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 8 | 9 | 100 | 2 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 7 | 49 | 2 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.09