Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.162
- 42.6%Success rate50.0%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.097
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- 36.3%Third-down rate52.5%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.44Points / drive2.26
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 68 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:02 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:09 | 21 | 85 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q2 12:58 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 11:26 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 9:33 | 16 | 95 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| DAL | Q2 0:30 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| MIN | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–14 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 39 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| DAL | Q3 12:25 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| MIN | Q3 10:36 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| DAL | Q3 6:01 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 17–28 |
| MIN | Q3 2:39 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 17–28 |
| DAL | Q4 14:10 | 11 | 53 | Turnover | 17–28 |
| MIN | Q4 9:35 | 4 | 81 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| DAL | Q4 6:56 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 17–35 |
| MIN | Q4 5:01 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 17–35 |
| DAL | Q4 1:54 | 9 | 55 | Turnover | 17–35 |
| MIN | Q4 0:18 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 29/50 | 355 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ReShard Lee | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 17/23 | 242 | 5 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1/1 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.24