2004 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

20·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Rex Grossman

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.240
  • 39.8%Success rate35.2%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.283
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.177
  • 9.0%Explosive rate6.8%
  • 32.3%Third-down rate25.7%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
  • 1.23Points / drive0.78
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.102

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00724Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:0036Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:03658Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 7:38423Punt0–7
CHIQ1 5:3331Punt0–7
DETQ1 4:3932Punt0–7
CHIQ1 2:39736Turnover0–7
DETQ2 14:52529Punt0–7
CHIQ2 11:3046Punt0–7
DETQ2 10:0335Punt0–7
CHIQ2 7:53727Punt0–7
DETQ2 4:251065Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 0:1612End of half3–7
DETQ3 15:0032Punt3–7
CHIQ3 13:5037Opp touchdown10–7
CHIQ3 12:17128Turnover10–7
DETQ3 11:5030Turnover10–7
CHIQ3 10:5730Turnover10–7
DETQ3 10:05538Field goal13–7
CHIQ3 7:37747Punt13–7
DETQ3 4:3737Punt13–7
CHIQ3 3:081161Touchdown13–14
DETQ4 12:40554Touchdown20–14
CHIQ4 9:5438Punt20–14
DETQ4 8:501040Punt20–14
CHIQ4 4:0132Punt20–14
DETQ4 2:594-8Safety20–16
CHIQ4 1:53535Turnover20–16
DETQ4 0:1800End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington14/2618711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Jones15362.40
Artose Pinner5214.20
Shawn Bryson3186.00
Joey Harrington461.50
Roy Williams111.00

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman16/3522702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones21673.22
Rex Grossman4215.30
David Terrell12020.00
Anthony Thomas3134.30
Bobby Wade155.00
Jason McKie111.00
Bernard Berrian111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.68
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.16