Closing spread
CHI -1.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.240
- 39.8%Success rate35.2%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.283
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.177
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 32.3%Third-down rate25.7%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.23Points / drive0.78
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 14/26 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 16/35 | 227 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.16