Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.174EPA / play+0.059
- 50.4%Success rate45.7%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.154
- +0.091EPA / rush-0.056
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- 47.6%Third-down rate38.2%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.37Points / drive1.84
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.130EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:46 | 11 | 30 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 5:19 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q1 1:53 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 13:07 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 11:59 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| KC | Q2 8:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q2 7:14 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–17 |
| KC | Q2 5:47 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q2 3:38 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| KC | Q2 2:36 | 12 | 50 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| KC | Q3 14:47 | 4 | 9 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| DEN | Q3 12:53 | 4 | 2 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| KC | Q3 12:09 | 2 | 7 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| DEN | Q3 11:23 | 3 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| KC | Q3 9:54 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| DEN | Q3 5:50 | 2 | 65 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| KC | Q3 4:48 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 24–24 |
| DEN | Q3 2:43 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| KC | Q4 13:21 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 24–27 |
| DEN | Q4 9:22 | 13 | 87 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| KC | Q4 2:12 | 5 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 24–34 |
| DEN | Q4 1:39 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 24–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/32 | 174 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 26 | 151 | 5.8 | 3 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/29 | 230 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Griffin | 23 | 156 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05