Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.174EPA / play+0.059
- 50.4%Success rate45.7%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.154
- +0.091EPA / rush-0.056
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- 47.6%Third-down rate38.2%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.37Points / drive1.84
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.130EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/32 | 174 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 26 | 151 | 5.8 | 3 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/29 | 230 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Griffin | 23 | 156 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05