Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 11:49 | 9 | 68 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q1 6:35 | 14 | 76 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| LAC | Q2 14:07 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 3–6 |
| HOU | Q2 12:43 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| LAC | Q2 12:13 | 5 | 42 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| HOU | Q2 9:51 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q2 4:43 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 10–13 |
| HOU | Q2 1:19 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–13 |
| HOU | Q3 13:25 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 11:27 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| HOU | Q3 9:12 | 8 | 37 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q3 4:36 | 9 | 33 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| HOU | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LAC | Q4 12:47 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| HOU | Q4 8:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 27–20 |
| LAC | Q4 6:39 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 27–20 |
| HOU | Q4 4:41 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 27–20 |
| LAC | Q4 3:48 | 6 | 27 | End of half | 27–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/25 | 229 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 2 |
| David Carr | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.