Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.028
- 44.4%Success rate40.2%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.169
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- 37.2%Third-down rate33.4%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.81Points / drive1.72
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NO are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/29 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 28 | 135 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/37 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.35