Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.028
- 44.4%Success rate40.2%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.169
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- 37.2%Third-down rate33.4%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.81Points / drive1.72
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NO are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:42 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:09 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:05 | 3 | 42 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:37 | 6 | 40 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:10 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 14:52 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q2 12:10 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 9:18 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q2 8:16 | 5 | 37 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 6:38 | 9 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q2 2:54 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 8 | End of half | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q3 12:59 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 11:53 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q3 9:05 | 10 | 45 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 4:45 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q3 3:40 | 2 | 26 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NO | Q3 3:06 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 21–7 |
| SEA | Q3 0:27 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NO | Q4 12:14 | 8 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 21–7 |
| SEA | Q4 9:27 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NO | Q4 4:41 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 21–7 |
| SEA | Q4 3:53 | 7 | 31 | End of half | 21–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/29 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 28 | 135 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/37 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.35