2004 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.121
- 42.6%Success rate38.9%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- 37.9%Third-down rate31.9%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.25Points / drive1.03
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.089EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 24/37 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 13/24 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 29 | 148 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.83