Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. OAK are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 13/24 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.