Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:12 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:00 | 12 | 118 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 14:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 11:29 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:39 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 7:59 | 11 | 30 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:23 | 11 | 63 | End of half | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LV | Q3 14:04 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| BUF | Q3 12:08 | 11 | 45 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 6:16 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BUF | Q3 3:33 | 7 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| LV | Q4 14:46 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BUF | Q4 11:03 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q4 6:52 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| BUF | Q4 2:27 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LV | Q4 1:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 13/24 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.