Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play-0.012
- 53.8%Success rate41.5%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.091
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- 44.4%Third-down rate34.6%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.73Points / drive1.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/33 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 124 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 25/39 | 273 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 26 | 152 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.66
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.22