Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play-0.012
- 53.8%Success rate41.5%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.091
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- 44.4%Third-down rate34.6%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.73Points / drive1.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 9:23 | 12 | 41 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q1 4:30 | 14 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 12:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q2 10:57 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 7:10 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 5:10 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 1:50 | 4 | 37 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 1:09 | 4 | -1 | End of half | 3–10 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 39 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q3 11:18 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| IND | Q3 7:36 | 7 | 7 | Punt | 10–17 |
| TEN | Q3 4:29 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| IND | Q3 2:38 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| TEN | Q4 14:56 | 8 | 28 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| IND | Q4 11:28 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| TEN | Q4 7:31 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 24–17 |
| IND | Q4 4:25 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| TEN | Q4 2:29 | 8 | 40 | Turnover | 31–17 |
| IND | Q4 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/33 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 124 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 25/39 | 273 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 26 | 152 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.66
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.22