Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
51
Model margin
+2.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play+0.072
- 50.0%Success rate44.4%
- +0.287EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.060
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.1%
- 52.5%Third-down rate37.2%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.26Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:20 | 12 | 67 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 5:43 | 15 | 75 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| PHI | Q2 12:06 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q2 6:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–10 |
| PHI | Q2 5:59 | 1 | 19 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q2 5:35 | 10 | 54 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| PHI | Q2 0:48 | 7 | 40 | End of half | 6–10 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 48 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| MIN | Q3 11:22 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| PHI | Q3 4:37 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 9–17 |
| MIN | Q3 2:55 | 15 | 89 | Missed field goal | 9–17 |
| PHI | Q4 9:14 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 9–24 |
| MIN | Q4 7:40 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| PHI | Q4 3:32 | 4 | 13 | Field goal | 16–27 |
| MIN | Q4 1:11 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 16–27 |
| PHI | Q4 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 37/47 | 343 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/28 | 245 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77