Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
35.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.113
- 44.9%Success rate38.4%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.127
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.096
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- 44.9%Third-down rate35.0%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.83Points / drive1.22
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.133EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 100 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 8:58 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 7:26 | 9 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 2:34 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 0:18 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 11:35 | 7 | 50 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q2 9:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 7:24 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q2 5:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 2:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q2 1:47 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q2 0:18 | 2 | 12 | End of half | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 11 | Turnover | 0–19 |
| BAL | Q3 12:02 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| PIT | Q3 11:59 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–20 |
| BAL | Q3 8:30 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–20 |
| PIT | Q3 6:45 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| BAL | Q3 6:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–20 |
| PIT | Q3 5:07 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–20 |
| BAL | Q3 1:34 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–20 |
| PIT | Q3 0:33 | 5 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| BAL | Q4 13:04 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 7–23 |
| PIT | Q4 8:29 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| BAL | Q4 6:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–23 |
| PIT | Q4 3:43 | 4 | 25 | Opp touchdown | 13–30 |
| PIT | Q4 2:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–30 |
| BAL | Q4 1:47 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 12/20 | 176 | 2 | 2 |
| Tommy Maddox | 4/13 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 10/18 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 24 | 62 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Kyle Boller | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.60