2004 · Week 2

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

10·6

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

37

Model margin

-1.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.072
  • 44.4%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.203
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 37.2%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.25
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.6%
  • +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.089

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck12/2614711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander17452.60
Maurice Morris320.70
Matt Hasselbeck1-2-2.00

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Simms21/3217501
Brad Johnson4/73401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charlie Garner13755.80
Chris Simms4133.30
Brad Johnson133.00
Jamel White4-5-1.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.94
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.12