2004 · Week 2
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
37
Model margin
-1.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.072
- 44.4%Success rate42.6%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.203
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- 37.2%Third-down rate37.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.81Points / drive1.25
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.6%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.089
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:05 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:18 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 7:52 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:11 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 2:24 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 15:00 | 2 | 29 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q2 12:52 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TB | Q2 10:32 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q2 8:51 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TB | Q2 7:15 | 13 | 71 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| SEA | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SEA | Q3 14:05 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 12:37 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SEA | Q3 11:13 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 9:10 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| SEA | Q3 7:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 6:03 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SEA | Q3 4:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 2:54 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SEA | Q4 13:45 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q4 10:25 | 11 | 71 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q4 4:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–6 |
| TB | Q4 2:31 | 8 | 23 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q4 1:03 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 10–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 12/26 | 147 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 21/32 | 175 | 0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 4/7 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.12