Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
46
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:44 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:10 | 5 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:28 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 5:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:32 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 0:09 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 9:42 | 17 | 97 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q2 1:12 | 5 | 56 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q3 12:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LA | Q3 11:10 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q3 8:58 | 3 | 16 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LA | Q3 7:24 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| ATL | Q3 2:41 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LA | Q4 12:36 | 2 | -10 | Opp touchdown | 17–31 |
| LA | Q4 11:48 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 17–31 |
| ATL | Q4 10:36 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 17–34 |
| LA | Q4 4:41 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 17–34 |
| ATL | Q4 3:18 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 17–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 14/19 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12 | 109 | 9.1 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Dez White | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.