Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Total
35
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.059
- 38.4%Success rate43.2%
- -0.127EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.114
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 35.0%Third-down rate40.8%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 1.22Points / drive1.40
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–26 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:34 | 7 | 64 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:43 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 6:50 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 4:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 2:43 | 3 | 8 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q1 1:52 | 5 | 40 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q2 14:53 | 6 | 81 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q2 11:46 | 7 | 19 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q2 8:42 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q2 6:11 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q2 4:54 | 4 | 50 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q2 3:06 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q3 11:02 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| BAL | Q3 6:08 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 17–6 |
| CIN | Q3 3:15 | 10 | 36 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| BAL | Q4 13:25 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| CIN | Q4 12:25 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| BAL | Q4 9:03 | 1 | 75 | Touchdown | 23–9 |
| CIN | Q4 8:45 | 11 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 23–9 |
| BAL | Q4 5:08 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 23–9 |
| CIN | Q4 4:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 23–9 |
| BAL | Q4 3:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 23–9 |
| CIN | Q4 1:50 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 23–9 |
| BAL | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 11/18 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 18 | 186 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Alan Ricard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| B.J. Sams | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/52 | 316 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.31