Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Total
35
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.059
- 38.4%Success rate43.2%
- -0.127EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.114
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 35.0%Third-down rate40.8%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 1.22Points / drive1.40
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 11/18 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 18 | 186 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Alan Ricard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| B.J. Sams | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/52 | 316 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.31