Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play+0.174
- 41.4%Success rate50.4%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.091
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- 38.7%Third-down rate47.6%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.44Points / drive2.37
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed+0.130
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 32 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:14 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 5:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:23 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 3:26 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 1:28 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q2 11:54 | 9 | 83 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 6:15 | 10 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 1:52 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| KC | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -8 | End of half | 6–7 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| HOU | Q3 11:10 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 6–14 |
| KC | Q3 9:44 | 10 | 67 | Opp touchdown | 14–14 |
| KC | Q3 3:51 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 14–14 |
| HOU | Q3 0:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–14 |
| KC | Q4 14:54 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| HOU | Q4 10:55 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| KC | Q4 5:20 | 7 | 6 | Punt | 21–21 |
| HOU | Q4 2:18 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 24–21 |
| KC | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 13/25 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Domanick Williams | 10 | 12 | 1.2 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 21/30 | 224 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 32 | 134 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66