Closing spread
TEN -6
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.012
- 39.9%Success rate41.5%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.091
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- 36.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.27Points / drive1.47
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:08 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:47 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:10 | 14 | 73 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q2 9:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 8:12 | 8 | 21 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| JAX | Q2 3:20 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TEN | Q2 1:08 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 0–6 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TEN | Q3 13:04 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–6 |
| JAX | Q3 11:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TEN | Q3 9:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| JAX | Q3 7:01 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q3 3:15 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q3 0:36 | 8 | 50 | Punt | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q4 10:24 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–12 |
| JAX | Q4 5:37 | 15 | 48 | Touchdown | 15–12 |
| TEN | Q4 0:09 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 15–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 14/20 | 124 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/26 | 143 | 0 | 1 |
| Billy Volek | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.43