Closing spread
TEN -6
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.012
- 39.9%Success rate41.5%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.091
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- 36.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.27Points / drive1.47
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 14/20 | 124 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/26 | 143 | 0 | 1 |
| Billy Volek | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.43