Closing spread
STL -6
Total
49
Model margin
+2.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:55 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 7:58 | 6 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:23 | 3 | 39 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 3:51 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:50 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NO | Q2 11:08 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 7:46 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NO | Q2 3:38 | 6 | 12 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:01 | 5 | 35 | End of half | 13–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 13–10 |
| NO | Q3 11:21 | 12 | 51 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| LA | Q3 5:16 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| NO | Q4 13:34 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 22–17 |
| LA | Q4 8:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 22–17 |
| NO | Q4 6:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 22–17 |
| LA | Q4 5:42 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 22–17 |
| NO | Q4 3:12 | 5 | 30 | Missed field goal | 22–17 |
| LA | Q4 1:48 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 22–25 |
| NO | Q4 0:28 | 3 | 38 | Field goal | 25–25 |
| LA | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 25–25 |
| LA | OT | 7 | 19 | Punt | 25–25 |
| NO | OT | 6 | 54 | Field goal | 28–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 24/41 | 316 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.