Closing spread
STL -6
Total
49
Model margin
+2.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 24/41 | 316 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.