Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:18 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:42 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:15 | 10 | 70 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:18 | 10 | 70 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 12:24 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q2 10:57 | 5 | 9 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q2 7:43 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q2 5:24 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q2 2:35 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q2 1:31 | 6 | 36 | End of half | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q3 12:07 | 2 | 26 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q3 11:17 | 7 | 36 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 7:37 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| LAC | Q3 3:29 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| DEN | Q4 14:06 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| LAC | Q4 11:12 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 13–23 |
| DEN | Q4 9:17 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 13–23 |
| LAC | Q4 6:43 | 7 | 6 | Punt | 13–23 |
| DEN | Q4 3:38 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 13–23 |
| LAC | Q4 2:26 | 7 | 6 | End of half | 13–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 25/36 | 294 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 12 | 7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.41
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.