Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
+7.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.035
- 37.7%Success rate44.4%
- -0.120EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.040
- 5.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.2%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.10Points / drive1.81
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 19/32 | 153 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Robertson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jasen Isom | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/30 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 19 | 52 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.77