Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
+7.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.035
- 37.7%Success rate44.4%
- -0.120EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.040
- 5.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.2%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.10Points / drive1.81
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:31 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:14 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 8:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 6:24 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SF | Q1 4:37 | 2 | -12 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q1 4:22 | 4 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| SF | Q1 2:28 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 14:54 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 11:35 | 8 | 45 | Missed field goal | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 7:47 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 5:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 3:46 | 9 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| SF | Q2 1:02 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–24 |
| SEA | Q2 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–24 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| SF | Q3 10:41 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–31 |
| SEA | Q3 9:39 | 14 | 64 | Field goal | 0–34 |
| SF | Q3 2:09 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–34 |
| SEA | Q3 0:30 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–34 |
| SF | Q4 13:35 | 11 | 50 | Turnover | 0–34 |
| SEA | Q4 8:37 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–34 |
| SF | Q4 6:59 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 0–34 |
| SEA | Q4 4:56 | 7 | 46 | End of half | 0–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 19/32 | 153 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Robertson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jasen Isom | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/30 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 19 | 52 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.77