Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.174EPA / play-0.113
- 50.4%Success rate38.4%
- +0.235EPA / dropback-0.127
- +0.091EPA / rush-0.096
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 47.6%Third-down rate35.0%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 2.37Points / drive1.22
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.130EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 11:09 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q1 6:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 5:08 | 10 | 34 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| BAL | Q1 0:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–3 |
| KC | Q2 13:40 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 10–9 |
| BAL | Q2 12:00 | 1 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| KC | Q2 11:50 | 15 | 94 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| BAL | Q2 3:42 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–10 |
| KC | Q2 2:05 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 17–17 |
| KC | Q2 1:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–17 |
| BAL | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| BAL | Q3 8:19 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 20–17 |
| KC | Q3 5:33 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| BAL | Q4 14:57 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| KC | Q4 9:14 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 27–24 |
| BAL | Q4 5:50 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 27–24 |
| KC | Q4 3:32 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 27–24 |
| BAL | Q4 2:33 | 6 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 27–24 |
| KC | Q4 1:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 21/31 | 223 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 33 | 125 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 10/17 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.40