Closing spread
OAK -2
Total
42
Model margin
+2.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:41 | 8 | 59 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 7:29 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:09 | 5 | 46 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q1 0:42 | 4 | 53 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:30 | 4 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 11:41 | 3 | 19 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 8:59 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 9–10 |
| LV | Q2 7:17 | 1 | 55 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q2 7:02 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| LV | Q2 3:25 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q2 0:47 | 5 | 43 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LV | Q3 11:07 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q3 10:04 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LV | Q3 8:44 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q3 6:35 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| LV | Q3 3:03 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| HOU | Q3 0:29 | 4 | 30 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| LV | Q4 14:48 | 9 | 45 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| HOU | Q4 10:52 | 13 | 73 | Field goal | 17–30 |
| LV | Q4 3:19 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 17–30 |
| HOU | Q4 1:48 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 14/23 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 26 | 105 | 4.0 | 1 |
| David Carr | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.