Closing spread
PHI -8.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.240
- 44.4%Success rate35.2%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.283
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.177
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.8%
- 37.2%Third-down rate25.7%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.97Points / drive0.78
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/38 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 23 | 115 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.53