2004 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

19·9

Bears

Chicago

QB Jonathan Quinn

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -8.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.240
  • 44.4%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.283
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.177
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.8%
  • 37.2%Third-down rate25.7%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
  • 1.97Points / drive0.78
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.027EPA / play allowed-0.102

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
PHIQ1 15:00934Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:3232Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:35721Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 5:00521Punt3–0
PHIQ1 1:551167Field goal6–0
CHIQ2 10:5932Punt6–0
PHIQ2 9:3339Punt6–0
PHIQ2 7:59436Touchdown13–0
CHIQ2 6:0331Punt13–0
PHIQ2 5:00564Field goal16–0
CHIQ2 1:571255Field goal16–3
PHIQ2 0:0600End of half16–3
CHIQ3 15:0033Punt16–3
PHIQ3 13:58522Turnover16–3
CHIQ3 11:4970Punt16–3
PHIQ3 8:21955Field goal19–3
CHIQ3 4:4139Punt19–3
PHIQ3 3:0138Punt19–3
CHIQ3 0:5634Punt19–3
PHIQ4 14:351245Missed field goal19–3
CHIQ4 8:481170Touchdown19–9
PHIQ4 3:57615Missed field goal19–9
CHIQ4 1:551057End of half19–9

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb24/3823711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook231155.00
Dorsey Levens8263.30
Greg Lewis11111.00
Donovan McNabb122.00

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jonathan Quinn26/4321510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones13322.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.53