Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.040
- 40.7%Success rate45.5%
- -0.012EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.139EPA / rush+0.058
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- 35.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.71Points / drive1.86
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.135EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 61 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 6:52 | 13 | 48 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q2 13:40 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:12 | 10 | 30 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 7:55 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:59 | 3 | 73 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 3:22 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:05 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q3 11:33 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:56 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| BUF | Q3 5:23 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:17 | 10 | 54 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| BUF | Q4 12:21 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 8:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| BUF | Q4 6:58 | 3 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:58 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| BUF | Q4 0:58 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 14–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 16/29 | 197 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 31/42 | 304 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 22 | 77 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.23